Earlier this month, I did a series of posts, following the trend of the GBPJPY on a trend move higher. The move to the upside was helped by dips finding support against the 100-hour MA. That continued until it didn’t and the technical story changed.
Here is the succession of posts.
- https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbpjpy-is-trading-at-highest-level-since-2008-and-bounced-off-support-todaywhat-next-20240705/
- https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/has-the-song-remained-the-same-for-the-technicals-driving-the-gbpjpy-trend-move-higher-20240708/
- https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpjpy-still-remains-above-the-100-hour-ma-20240709/
- https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpjpy-continues-its-run-to-the-upside-hints-of-a-top-yesterdayfails-20240710/
When the high was reached, and the price fell sharply on economic news (US CPI), the pendulum shifted to the downside.
At first the price action found support near the 50% midpoint and bounced. However, on the subsequent rallies, the corrections started to use the 100-hour MA – this time as resistance instead of support.
Today, the price moved to a swing area going back to early June between 200.41 and 200.82. This area may be a level that dip buyers stick a toe in the water. It is an area where, there may be a stall in the fall.
Having said that, if the price does move below the 200.41 level, I would expect stops on the break as just as trends are fast, directional and go farther than expected when the market rallies, it can do the same thing when the price trends lower.
On a correction watch the 61.8% at 201.36 for early clues and if broken to the upside, the falling 100 hour MA will be the key target where buyers and sellers can decide on whether it remains as topside resistance (once again).
Watch the above video and learn.