Oil prices were roughly flat on Thursday as investors wrestled with mixed signals about crude demand, with concerns about an economic slowdown in the U.S. contending with rising expectations the Federal Reserve would soon cut interest rates.
Brent futures were up 1 cent to $85.09 a barrel by 11:41 a.m. EDT (1541 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 6 cents at $82.91. Both had registered gains in the previous session.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, while initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 1.
While the data strengthened the case for the Fed to cut rates as early as this month, which could spur more spending on oil, the rising jobless claims also signalled an economic easing that could cut into crude demand, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York.
“The reality on the ground is that we’ve got a slowing economy that could potentially soften crude oil demand,” Kilduff said. Prices were supported by government data on Wednesday that showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels last week, more than forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. Weak gasoline demand in the U.S., however, kept oil prices from moving higher, Kilduff said,
Chinese economic growth also pushed oil prices lower. Chinese leaders signalled on Thursday that Beijing would stay the course with economic policy, though few concrete details were disclosed. Together, those events helped to check investor hopes of a push to boost consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.
Still, the possibility of imminent U.S. central bank rate cuts enticed some trades and kept oil prices from sinking even more.
“Hopes of a Fed easing, which can boost economic growth, and current summer travel in the U.S. are ensuring enough traction in oil demand from the world’s largest economy,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
Fed officials said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is closer to cutting rates given inflation’s improved trajectory and a labor market in better balance, possibly setting the stage for a reduction in borrowing costs in September.
U.S. economic activity expanded at a slight to modest pace from late May through early July, with firms expecting slower growth ahead, according to a report released by the Fed on Wednesday.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday and gave no hints about its next move, arguing that domestic price pressures remain high and inflation will be above its target well into next year.