Dallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% prior

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The Dallas and Cleveland PCE remix data illustrates why Fed officials and markets are feeling better about the pricing picture.

  • One month annualized trimmed mean 1.4% vs 2.7% prior (lowest this year)
  • Six month annualized 3.0% vs 3.1% prior
  • 12-month 2.8% vs 2.9% prior

Digging through the numbers, some drivers of inflation:

  • Prescription drugs
  • Tobacco
  • Spectator sports
  • Hospitals
  • Used trucks

Some drivers of disinflation:

  • Computer software and accessories
  • Gasoline
  • Air transport
  • Financial services fees
  • Women’s and girls clothing

One thing that wasn’t trimmed out was rent, which was up 4.8% annualized and still remains a problematic part of the inflation picture.

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