S&P 500 ran well into the data release, surged only to reverse in a four-hours selling streak. Some sectoral culprit? No, long-dated bonds did it – TLT daily slide did it. Was it fundamentally justified? Usually, you would see USD go up in tandem, but that didn‘t happen. The selling looks to me to be
Month: June 2024
Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the
UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Swiss Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell. Wednesday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, US Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC
Oil prices slid in early Asian trade on Thursday as a surprise build in U.S. stockpiles fuelled fears about slow demand from the top oil consumer, though worries a potential expansion of the Gaza war may disrupt Middle East supplies capped declines. Brent crude oil futures fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $84.17 a barrel
Gold falls from daily highs, pressured by elevated US Treasury yields. May US PCE Index meets forecasts, fuels hope for 2024 Fed rate cuts. US 10-year yield hits 4.339%, a high since June 12; DXY at 105.80, down 0.08%. Gold prices retreated during Friday’s session after an inflation report revealed progress in the disinflationary process
Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the
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After a 13% rally so far this year, crude oil prices have been consolidating in a narrow range amid concerns over China’s economic activity and rise in US crude oil stocks. The Fed’s assertions on the possibility of rate hike is making the Street nervous. Could this be a setback for Indian oil prices which
AUD rose against USD due to US inflation reduction and a potential dovish stance from the Fed. Soft PCE data from the US may benefit the Aussie policy divergence between the RBA and Fed. RBA’s delayed rate cuts could bolster the Aussie, contrasting with other G10 central banks’ reduction strategies. Friday’s session recorded a significant
Fundamental Overview This was a messy week for many markets, including gold. After some up and downs, we are ending the week basically flat. There was no real change in the fundamentals this week as the data just showed some more rebalancing in the US labour market but didn’t signal any material weakness. As of
SPX daily Closing changes: S&P 500 down 0.4% Nasdaq down 0.7% Russell 2000 +0.1% DJIA -0.1% Toronto TSX Comp -0.5% The S&P 500 closed the half-year up a tidy 14% but today’s reversal from an all-time high is somewhat ominous. However against that backdrop note that the first three trading days of July are traditionally
Weak looking spot gold recovered on Thursday and Friday ahead of the key US PCE inflation data due Friday. Spot gold managed to recover nearly 2% from the weekly low of $2293 as it rallied to $2339 level; however, the metal gave back some of its gains on the much awaited US PCE inflation data
Yen remained in the spotlight last week, dominating headlines even as some significant global inflation data also moved markets. The Japanese currency continued its downtrend, reaching multi-decade lows. Despite the prolonged decline, Japanese authorities refrained from intervening directly in the markets. However, the looming threat of intervention kept traders cautious, resulting in a more controlled
An important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years. The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased just a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage
US Dollar saw a slight dip at the end of the week, clearing daily gains. US Dollar finds support amid high US Treasury yields. May’s PCE data showed an unexpected deceleration in US inflation. The end of the week saw the US Dollar, as benchmarked by the DXY Index, settle near 105.80, after hitting a
Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job
Markets: Gold down $3 to $2342 US 10-year yields up 9.8 bps to 4.39% WTI crude down 19-cents to $80.64 S&P 500 down 0.4% AUD leads, JPY lags Friday was the final day of the quarter and that made drawing conclusions tough. It was especially difficult because the US political scene was thrown into disarray
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading hours on Friday, setting up a third straight weekly jump, as concerns about supply problems from escalating geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions offset signs of weak demand. Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expire on Friday, rose 15 cents, or 0.2% to $86.54 a barrel by 0020
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