Ethereum
keeps on falling and making new lows as the outlook is turning more and more
bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary policies. All
the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign that the big
picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the technicals can
help with risk management and short-term directional plays.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe
Ethereum Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Ethereum sold
off again but bounced on the previous low around the 1545 level. We can see
that the sellers are leaning on the red 21 moving average, and we
will likely find them again around the 1600 level. A break below the 1545 low
would take the price into the next support at 1400.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Ethereum 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the bounce
from the low got rejected at the resistance zone around the 1600 level. This is
where the sellers are piling in with a defined risk above the resistance to
target a break below the low and the 1400 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and extend the
rally into the 1681 resistance.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Ethereum 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
short term market structure is bullish as the price has been printing higher
highs and higher lows. The last higher low is around the 1575 level, so a break
below that level would switch the bullish trend into a bearish one and lead to
more selling pressure.
Upcoming Events
This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Ethereum. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Ethereum lower anyway.