The US
data started to surprise to the downside recently and that has brought real
yields and the US Dollar down. In fact, the market is increasingly confident
that the Fed is done with the tightening cycle, and we are now looking at when
the central bank is going to cut rates. The combination of these factors gave
Gold a boost and we are likely to see more of the same if the data continues to
weaken.
Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the trend in
Gold has switched to the upside as the price has been printing higher highs and
higher lows and the moving averages have
crossed to the upside. We can also see that Gold broke above the key 1934 resistance and the
next stop should now be the 1984 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that Gold is
trading within a rising channel and the price recently bounced on the key resistance turned support where we
had also the confluence of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. That’s where the buyers piled in with a defined
risk below the level to target the 1984 resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will need the price to fall below the key 1934 level to confirm a change
in trend and position for a fall into the 1893 support.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the
1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance around the 1950 level
that the buyers will need to break to continue the rally into the 1984
resistance. In fact, we now have this mini range with the 1934 support and 1950
resistance that gives us a clear structure for the next move. A break to the
upside should lead to more buying, while a break to the downside should lead to
more selling.
Upcoming Events
This week is pretty empty on the data front with just
the US ISM Services PMI scheduled for Wednesday and the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday. Better than expected data should weigh on Gold in the short term,
while worse than expected figures should give it even more strength.