Bitcoin
eventually fold as the big picture outlook is starting to look more and more
bleak with global growth endangered by the Chinese ailing economy and lack of
big stimulus from the authorities, and the “higher for longer” stance from the
Fed or even more rate hikes. The resilience in the cryptocurrency has been
remarkable in the past months, but we might be at a tipping point now.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin fell
below the trendline support
where we had also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
price has eventually bounced on the strong support at 25231
but it’s starting to look more like a “dead-cat bounce” rather than a start of
another rally. The buyers, nonetheless, are likely to pile in here with a
defined risk below the level to target new highs.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that if we get a
bigger pullback, the most likely resistances will be the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the stronger 61.8% level where we have also the broken
trendline. More conservative sellers may want to just wait for the price to fall
below the 25231 support to pile in and ride the selloff into the 21509 level.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor resistance at 26300 where the price got rejected multiple times.
So now we have a range between the 25231 support and the 26300 resistance. A
break on either side should lead to a more sustained move.
Upcoming Events
This week is
pretty empty on the economic data side as we will only have the PMIs today and
the US Jobless Claims tomorrow. Strong data should support Bitcoin in the short
term, but the prospects of more rate hikes might weigh on the cryptocurrency
soon after. Conversely, weak data is likely to cause some recessionary fears in
the markets leading to negative risk sentiment and eventually weighing on
Bitcoin. Remember also that this is the Jackson Hole Symposium week, so we will
hear from many central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, who is set to speak
on Friday.