The
Nasdaq Composite selloff has been remarkable with key levels being breached
with no hesitation as the sentiment turned negative. The reason for the selloff
is unclear as the US data has been supporting the soft-landing narrative but
the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy is expected to infect the other
advanced economies and drag the global economy down. Moreover, the quick rise
in long term Treasury yields is also tightening financial conditions with real
yields approaching the levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis of
2008. It’s a tough environment for sure, so the technicals will be very helpful
in managing the risk.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Nasdaq Composite Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite broke below the trendline and
extended the selloff into the key 13174 support. This is
where we can expect the buyers stepping in more strongly with a defined risk
below the level to target another rally to the high. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to extend the
selloff into the 12274 level.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq Composite 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
indeed bouncing from the support at the moment and if see a bigger pullback,
the sellers are likely to step in near the broken trendline now turned
resistance, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq Composite 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a strong minor trendline where the sellers have been leaning on to
position for more downside. We can expect them to do so again and we can see
that we have also the confluence with
the Fibonacci retracement levels and the previously mentioned moving average.
The buyers will need the price to break above the trendline to turn the bias
more bullish and get the conviction to target the high again.
Upcoming
Events
This week is
pretty empty on the data front with just the US PMIs scheduled for Wednesday
and the US Jobless Claims for Thursday. We seem to be at a point where good
news is bad news because of the Fed’s stance and bad news is bad news because
the slowdown in global growth will lead to a recession in many countries
included the US. Remember also that it’s the Jackson Hole Symposium week, so we
will get comments from Fed officials again and especially Fed Chair Powell who
is scheduled to speak on Friday.