The week is definitely ending with quite a buzz, as there has been non-stop action since the ECB policy decision yesterday. The Japanese yen is the big mover today as we see a 200+ pips whipsaw in the aftermath of the BOJ policy decision earlier. That took equities for a ride as well and on the balance of things, stocks aren’t really too sure what to make of it. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% now but that’s not much changed from before the BOJ:
Meanwhile, the antipodean currencies are continuing to be trounced this week with AUD/USD down another 0.8% to 0.6650 following a break below its 100-day moving average of 0.6691 today. The plunge yesterday took out its 200-day moving average of 0.6727 and that is highlighted key downside risk for the pair with the end-June and July lows sitting near 0.6600.
Anyway, let’s keep the focus on the session ahead. There is going to be plenty to watch out for with inflation data being back on the menu in Europe. After the ECB opened the door to pausing in September, a softer set of numbers today could very well weigh further on the euro as rate hike prospects diminish further.
There will also be Q2 GDP data but markets are already recognising the slowdown in the euro area towards the end of June and a poor start to Q3 in July. So, the releases today shouldn’t have too much impact but they might feed into calls for the ECB to not hike rates after the summer.
We’ll also have BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference later at 0630 GMT and that is one to keep an eye out for after the YCC adjustment earlier.
0530 GMT – France Q2 preliminary GDP figures
0645 GMT – France July preliminary CPI figures
0700 GMT – Switzerland July KOF leading indicator index
0700 GMT – Spain Q2 preliminary GDP figures
0700 GMT – Spain July preliminary CPI figures
0800 GMT – Germany Q2 preliminary GDP figures
0900 GMT – Eurozone July final consumer confidence
0900 GMT – Eurozone July economic, industrial, services confidence
1200 GMT – Germany July preliminary CPI figures
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.