IATA chart
Global air travel is perhaps the single-best indicator of covid impacts and the latest data shows that we’re on the cusp of a full retracement.
The May report from IATA shows that passenger-kilometers are at 96.1% of the pre-pandemic level, which is up 39.1% year-over-year. I strongly suspect the job is completed in June or July.
What’s notable is the skew in traffic and the risks later. Domestic air travel is above pre-covid levels for the second month but international travel is still down 9.2%. Some of that is the slower return of Asian customers and covid concerns when booking vacations but there’s also an element of business travel that’s missing.
The rise of remote work has curbed business travel demand and right now that’s being replaced by revenge travel post-pandemic. In time, the demand for travel might be satiated and that will result in travel settling out at lower levels, or at least a lower trajectory than pre-pandemic. Hotels are facing the same question but for now, a return to the office and international business travel has some momentum.