AUDUSD shows a crack
The AUDUSD has been up 10 of the last 11 trading days. The move from the low reached 0.6457 on May 31, and reached a high of 0.6899 today. That is a move of 442 pips.
Technically looking at the daily chart, the price today moved above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2023 high. That retracement level comes in at 0.68899. The high price today reached 0.6899. The price is currently below the retracement level at 0.6856.
I don’t often look at the relative strength index , but it reached a level of 72.51 yesterday. That was the highest reading since February 2021.From that perspective the market is overbought.
DISCLAIMER: Overbought can get MORE overbought in a trending market and the market has been trending over the last 11 trading days. Having said that, if the price can remain below the 61.8% retracement at 0.68899 the sellers have a modest shot of more downside probing “just because” 10 of 11 days is a big extension. So the RSI is a secondary tool, but only if the price can stay below 0.6889.
If there was additional selling, the 50% midpoint of the range since 2021 high, and the high price from May come in at 0.68073 and 0.6818 respectively. I would expect buyers to lean against that area on a dip.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price yesterday extended above the topside channel trendline and tried to stay above it through the Asian session and part of the European session as well. However, the price has more recently today moved black below that rising trendline. This is also a small crack in the technical picture. Stay below the top side trendline is a modest negative.
AUDUSD back in the channel on the hourly chart