Intel earnings after the close. Expected to announce the largest quarterly decline.

• Q1 Revenue Estimate: $11.1 billion (40% decline YoY)
• EPS $-0.15 versus $0.87 in Q1 2022
• client computing $4.9 billion versus $9.3 billion in 2022
• Q1 Loss Estimate: $3.2 billion
• PC Shipments: 29% decline YoY
• Data Center Division Sales: $3.5 billion versus $6.0 billion in 2022 (42% decline YoY)

Intel Corp. is expected to report its largest-ever quarterly loss due to a sharp fall in personal-computer sales and increased competition. Analysts are predicting revenue of $11 billion for Q1, a 40% decline from the prior-year period, and a loss of $3.2 billion. PC shipments, which drive a large share of Intel’s revenue, fell by 29% YoY in Q1. Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, is working to cut costs, targeting savings of up to $10 billion annually by 2025, while making significant investments in chip factories.

The company’s data center division is expected to report sales of $3.5 billion in Q1, down by 42% from the prior year. Intel sales are anticipated to recover in the current quarter, though still down significantly from the previous year. Microsoft Corp.’s better-than-expected Q1 revenue suggests that PC buying may be showing signs of life. Intel faces challenges from rivals like AMD and new processors based on Arm Ltd.’s circuit designs, as well as delays in acquiring Israeli chip-making business Tower Semiconductor Ltd.

Intel shares are up 12.28% from year-end levels. The stock is currently trading at $29.68 up $0.63 or 2.17% today. That is the good news. The not so good news is the price has also declined -12.23% since peaking on April 4 at $33.84, and is down sharply from it 2020 high at $69.29. The low price in 2022 and 2023 reached down toward $24.59. That took the price to the lowest level since 2014. Ouch.

Looking at the daily chart, the price is trading between its 100 day moving average below $28.71, and it 200 day moving average at $29.97. The earnings today will likely push the price outside of those moving average bookends – tilting the bias in the direction of the break in the process.