On the daily chart below for
USDJPY, we can see that after breaking out of the minor downward channel, the
price kept on rising slowly towards the 135 handle. Most of the selloff after
the Silicon Valley Bank collapse has now been erased as the banking crisis has
faded.
The price is now near the key resistance at the 135 level and if the
price breaks above it, we should see a rally back towards the 138 handle. The moving
averages are crossed to the upside, so the buyers are in control for now.
The data to watch will be the US Jobless Claims
tomorrow and the US PMIs the day after. If we see misses to the expectations,
then we are likely to see a fall in the pair, on the other hand, if the data
beats forecasts, then we should see the pair breaking out and rallying towards
the 138 level.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that after breaking above the 133.77 resistance and retesting it, the
buyers kept pushing towards the 135 resistance. The whole move after the
channel breakout though is diverging with the MACD, which is a sign of a weakening
momentum and the price may pull back or even reverse from here. This rally to
the upside is also forming a rising
wedge pattern which is another sign of a possible reversal. A lot will depend
on the data we get in the next days.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that this upside move after breaking the 133.77 resistance is starting to
diverge with the MACD. So, this last leg to the upside may fail. In any case,
the levels to watch here are the resistance at 135 and the support at 133.77.
If the price breaks above the
resistance, the buyers should pile in and target the 138 level. On the other
hand, if the price breaks below the support, the sellers are likely to jump in
and push the price towards the next support at 132.00.