- Sentiment deterioration, amidst mixed Fed signals, weakened the NZD.
- Inflation expectations in the United States moved higher, according to Americans.
- NZD/USD traders are eyeing next week’s NZ CPI report.
NZD/USD snapped two days of consecutive gains and slid past the 200, 50, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on a risk-off impulse spurred by Fed’s hawkish commentary and expectations for further tightening. US economic data showed further deterioration, but inflation expectations increased the likelihood of another Fed hike past the May meeting. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.6207, down 1.38%.
The economy in the United States decelerates while inflation expectations arise
Wall Street is set to finish the last trading day of the week with losses. US data in the United States (US) showed that the economy is slowing down, as demonstrated by Retail Sales and Industrial Production. March’s sales dropped 1% MoM, below an anticipated contraction of 0.4%, while YoY figures came at 2.9%, below the prior’s month 5.9%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production (IP) fell for the first occasion in the year and grew 0.4% MoM, below February’s 0.9% reading.
In the meantime, a poll published by the University of Michigan revealed that American consumer sentiment in April improved to 63.5 from the previous reading of 62. The same report flashed that inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 3.6% in the prior’s report.
Those two reasons drove the NZD/USD price action. As the data was released, the NZD/USD hovered around 0.6260 before collapsing toward the day’s low of 0.6195.
Additionally, to the abovementioned, Federal Reserve officials continued to cross newswires, though they gave mixed signals. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic said he favors one more hike, then asses what’s needed in monetary policy. Contrarily, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that further tightening is need for a “substantial period and longer than markets anticipate.” Chicago’s President Austan Golsbee said he would focus on tighter credit conditions and lending data regarding his decision for the upcoming May 2-3 meeting.
On the New Zealand (NZ) front, the Business PMIS came at 48.1, below the prior’s month 51.7. Data was mainly ignored by NZD/USD traders, focusing on the following week’s CPI report, with estimates of 1.8% on QoQ Q1 inflation, while YoY is expected to remain at 7.2%.