Crude oil keeps on testing the 200 week moving average
The price of WTI crude futures reached a new week low of $65.38. That took out the low from earlier this week at $65.65. Looking at the weekly chart, the price also move below its 200 week moving average at $66.14. However the price has rebounded and currently trades at $66.62.
So for the third time this week a look below the 200 week moving average has found buyers. Traders are little bit reluctant.
One of the reasons for the rebound is that the price is down around 13% this week. That is near the -12.84% decline from the week of March 28, 2022. You’d have to go to April 2022 have a week that had a larger decline. So the market is a bit oversold. Traders often look to put a toe in the water when they feel the market is oversold, AND the price is near a key technical level.
The 200 week MA is a key long term MA level the price has not been at the 200 week MA since the week of February 1, 2021. So it has been over 2 years ago. From a year ago, in March 2022, the price of crude is down from a high of $130.50 as well.
For relative strength fans , the 14 bar RSI on the weekly is at 38.25. That is diverging from December RSI low at 36.40 and the Septemerb 2022 RSI low at 34.95. The thing about the RSI is it can always go lower (and it has not been below 30 since April 2020). Hence the need to use another technical level (like the 200 week MA) to lean against. If the price were to start to head toward $65, there might be more stops and a shift more to the downside.