USDCAD trade between technical levels near highs.
Canada also released jobs data today. It was a better than expectations, but the SVB news defined the price action. That sent the flight into the safety of the USD.
The USDCAD moved lower, but the low on the hourly chart above, stalled at the trend line connecting the low from Wednesday and Thursday. It also stalled ahead of the rising 100 hour MA (at 1.37497 currently).
The subsequent price high has likewise stalled within a technical level. A swing area between 1.3807 to 1.3816 is being targeted. The high reached 1.38106 so far. It would take a move above 1.38164 to have traders looking toward the extremes from earlier today (ahead of all the data) at 1.38589.
What might limit the CAD selling is that oil prices are rebounding albeit modestly on the back of the dollar selling.
Also part of the equation is that although BOC this week did keep rates unchanged and comments from BOC deputy Governor Rogers were a little wishy washy on whether the BOC was right or wrong when they put policy on a conditional pause, the other side of the equation is Fed is likely back to 25 basis points penciled in for March. The chances are now for a 32% chance of a 50 basis point hike in March. It was 72% on Wednesday, and 23% on Monday. That’s quite a ride.
Moreover, are terminal rates of 5.75% up to 6% now a thing of the past? Finally, is SVB a result of the lagged effect from raising rates from 0.25% to 4.75% that the markets – and the Fed – have been looking toward? Is that idea now here?
That may limit the upside for the USDCAD.
Of course if the price were to break above the 1.38164 level with momentum and then extend above the 1.38589 level, that storyline is different. The price action is more important.
In addition if the price cannot get below the rising 100 hour moving average and stay below that level, that is also a concern for any hopes of a move back to the downside in this pair.
So what 1.38164 in the short term. Break above that and then what 1.38589.
If 1.3164 holds, get below the rising 100 hour moving average would take more upside momentum out of the pair