Next week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will have its monetary policy meeting. No change in rates is seen. Analysts at TD Securities point out that the forward guidance is not expected to change significantly from the January meeting.
BoC: Live to hold another day
“The downside surprise on Q4 GDP should allow the BoC to look past the blockbuster January jobs number and keep the overnight rate unchanged at 4.50%. The forward guidance is not expected to change too much from January, though the BoC might want to put more emphasis on the conditional nature of its pause.”
“A low-energy BoC meeting would likely direct CAD’s focus to the evolving global narratives. We see USDCAD holding the 1.33/1.37 range unless US inflation goes awry this month. In turn, we prefer to play CAD on crosses (recently closing NZDCAD) where scaling into AUDCAD longs appeals to the shift in global growth drivers.”