JPM on EUR/USD: resistance circa 1.07, Q4 moves exhausted, top to develop, weakness in Q1

Technical Analysis

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  • JP Morgan discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and sees scope for a significant decline in Q1 of next year.
  • “EUR/USD reaches a pocket of resistance near 107. While there aren’t signals on the chart that point to an imminent reversal, other recently correlated markets across asset classes have signaled that the fourth quarter moves are exhausted. We are looking for a top to develop and EUR weakness into the first quarter,” JPM notes.
  • From our perspective, the most important question is if EUR/USD holds above parity during the 1Q23 pullback, or if the pair needs to retest medium-term support in the mid-90s before a more lasting trend change takes hold (to a more persistent EUR rebound),” JPM adds.

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