NZD/USD bulls move in on US Dollar weakness with eyes on the Fed

• NZD/USD firms up on US Dollar weakness as focus switched to the Fed next week.
• China lifted sentiment with the nation announcing some easing in its zero-COVID strategy.

NZD/USD is higher by some 0.75% in the day so far having climbed from a low of 0.6309 to a high of 0.6384 while the US Dollar gives up the prior day’s gains as the DXY moves into a key level of resistance ahead of the 106 level.

The greenback is under pressure as news from China lifted sentiment with the nation announcing some easing in its zero-COVID strategy. There were reports that people with Covid can now isolate at home rather than in state facilities if they have mild or no symptoms. They also no longer need to show tests for most venues and can travel more giving risk sentiment a lift mid-week.

Meanwhile, weaker US unit labour costs may have weighed on Wednesday leading to a move in both US bond yields and the greenback. ”The focus remains global, and while we are somewhat sceptical about the sustainability of lower US bond yields given Fed rhetoric, markets clearly want to move onto the next cycle and are fading end-of-cycle factors and hawkish Fed overtones,” analysts at ANZ Bank said. ”That speaks to volatility going into and in the wake of next week’s Fed meeting; that seems the key takeaway.”

Looking ahead to next week’s meeting, Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell most recently said that the US central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases “as soon as December.” Futures contracts tied to the Fed policy rate still imply a 70% chance that central bankers will slow the pace of rate hikes when they meet Dec. 13-14.

The Fed’s chair Powell’s comments have prompted the market to price in a lower peak interest rate, which Fed funds futures showed on Wednesday was 4.933%, down from a recent high of 5.1%. Markets are now rethinking this to a 5%-5.25% range by May, as per the futures contract prices and the CME Fed watch tool.

Meanwhile, noting that the USD has stopped appreciating and is now in full retreat, analysts at ANZ Bank argued that ”even if the USD has peaked and further depreciation occurs (strengthening the NZD), volatility has picked up and it could be a bumpy ride.”