You hate to see something rally to a five week high and then turnaround and close solidly negative.
That’s what has happened in EUR/USD and it may be the trigger the bears are looking for. It marks an outside day out the daily chart and a sharp reversal.
That’s an ugly pattern.
The only caveat I’d add is that Thursday/Friday was holiday-like trading in the US so if you ignore those, it’s not an outside day to Wednesday’s candle.
To have any kind of confidence that this is a reversal, I’d like to see a weekly outside candle, which would mean a close below 1.0221. I’d assume that would come with high US PCE and jobs. I will note that weather forecasts for next week in Europe are shaping up to be very cold and that could reignite European energy fears.
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