PredictIt odds for the midterms
The US midterms take place on November 8 and it all likelihood we will have a very good idea of who holds that balance of power that night. However that wasn’t the case in the most-recent US election and it might not be the case again on Tuesday.
Ballot counting is fraught by different systems, recounts and slow processes. If it’s too close to call, it will take some time to sort out but that’s not all.
In Georgia, one of the tightest races, we could see a repeat of 2020. In that race last time neither candidate received 50% of the vote so it went to a runoff that ultimately hoisted the Democrats to 50 seats and control of the Senate. That ultimately proved to be pivotal as it allowed them to pass numerous stimulus bills.
Polls for that race show libertarian candidate Chase Oliver sitting at 3-4% of the vote. If that’s enough to prevent Warnock or Walker from getting a majority, the runoff wouldn’t take place until December 6, leaving the balance of power in question.
An equally-close race is in Pennsylvania between Dr. Oz and John Fetterman. In that state, mail-in ballots aren’t counted until the day after election day and that could take days.
Arizona is also hotly-contested and voting there is mostly done by mail and in 2020 it was one of the last battlegrounds to be decided. The state also has an automatic threshold of 0.5% for a recount.
Add in the potential for candidates refusing to accept results and it could be a bumpy time.