The major US stock indices are paying back their gains.
- The Dow industrial average has turned back negative on the day. It currently is down -92 points -0.32% at 29133.24.
- The S&P index is near unchanged at 3641.88 after trading as high as 3671.44
- The NASDAQ index is still positive by about 47 points or 0.44% 10784, but also well off its highs at 10883.04
Sustainable gains in the US equities are hard to come by these days. One of the reasons is a him him him him him him him him him
number of analysts see lower earnings with estimates for S&P earnings in 2023 coming in between $200 and $220. With multiples coming down as well, the bearish stock analysts now see the S&P moving down toward the 3000 – 3300 level if those dynamics play out. With the S&P index currently at 3641, there is room to roam to the downside.
S&P index moves closer to the 200 week moving average
Of course, what is thought, may not play out as planned. As a result, it is important to listen to the technical story. For the S&P index I am focused on the 200 week moving average at 3589.60 (see green line in the chart above). The low price today reached 3614.54.
A move below the 200 week moving average would tilt the longer term bias more to the downside. Absent that, and the buyers are still in play from a technical perspective.
Where we are currently, it would take around a 50 point move to the downside from here into the close to push the price below that level today. Can it happen? Sure. Regardless, going forward, that 200 week moving average will continue to be eyed by traders for longer term bias clues. Move below increases the bearish bias. Stay above and the buyers are holding on to some hope for a corrective bounce.
PS. Both the Dow industrial average and the NASDAQ index are already below their 200 week moving averages. So if they are a prelude to the broad S&P, the optics are not positive.