AUDUSD retest the low from yesterday

The AUDUSD is testing the lows from yesterday at 0.64377. Looking at the weekly chart below, that low took the pair below the 61.8% of the move up from the 2020 low to the high reached in 2021 at 0.64615. After a move higher today took the pair back above that retracement level, the sellers have returned to push the pair’s price back below. The level remains a barometer on that chart for short term bullish and bearish.

Also of importance from a technical perspective on the weekly chart is the swing area between 0.6656 and 0.66809. That area had a number of swing lows and highs going back to 2019 and into 2020. Earlier this year, the swing low from the July 10 week stalled against the topside of that area. Two weeks ago the price also stalled in the swing area.

Last week the strong dollar buying sent the price tumbling to the downside and through.

Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the price on Thursday of last week corrected up back into that swing area. The high price reached 0.6670, but was below the higher resistance level at 0.66809. Sellers were leaning (see red numbered circles 9 and 10 in the chart below). The price trended down on Friday and again during yesterday’s trade.

Today was a dollar selling day into the London/morning session, but since then the price has rotated back to the downside.

Of note is that the corrective high price today could not approach the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the last swing high against that key target level on the weekly chart (see red numbered circles 9 and 10) at 0.65264 (see chart below).

That 38.2% retracement level at 0.65264 will remain a key minimum target level to get to and through if the buyers are to take back some control (it will move lower as the price moves lower as the retracement level would be re-calibrated accordingly). Until then, the dollar is king. Other key targets on the topside would be the 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.6556). That is near the 50% of the same move down from Thursday’s high.

With the dollar being king, it is up to the dollar sellers to show that they can take back control. If they cannot get above the 38.2 of a short trend move lower (from last Thursday’s high), and the falling 100 hour moving average, they are not taking back control.

PS. The AUDUSD is making a new low of 0.64288. A downward sloping trend line on the hourly chart targets 0.6405. With the pair trading at the lowest level since 2020, that target is the most logical one currently. Move below it and 0.6400, would add to the bearish bias.

PSS. Stocks are trading near new session lows and in negative territory. Dow is down -206 points or -0.71%. S&P is down -23.64 points -0.65%. NASDAQ index is down -42 points -0.39%.

The 10 year yield is up 4.2 basis points. The 30 year yield is up 8.4 basis points. The 2 year still negative by -5.2 basis points at 4.304%.