- Today’s daily candle, while closing only in apx 4 hours, is now showing a sign that bulls are failing to break the presented channel to the upside, following this 4th attempt to do so, on the daily timeframe.
- Even if we had a coin flip (50% chance to win, 50% chance to lose) for this trade, the reward vs risk merits to short BTCUSD here. Why? Because the profit potential is double the risk, for the first part of this trade plan, and the profit potential is 4 times the risk, for the 2nd part of the trade plan, as shown within today’s BTCUSD technical analysis video
- Furthermore, some traders can leave 25% of the position riding the possible down movement, since this channel, is also a potential bear flag
Bitcoin technical analysis: Oscilators for BTCUSD on the daily timeframe
| Name | Value | Action |
| Relative Strength Index (14) | 63.04 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) | 82.92 | Neutral |
| Commodity Channel Index (20) | 130.92 | Sell |
| Average Directional Index (14) | 21.60 | Neutral |
| Awesome Oscillator | 1503.27 | Neutral |
| Momentum (10) | 2000.24 | Buy |
| MACD Level (12, 26) | 555.31 | Buy |
| Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) | 100.00 | Neutral |
| Williams Percent Range (14) | -12.21 | Neutral |
| Bull Bear Power | 1497.19 | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) | 52.68 | Neutral |
- Cryptocurrency ‘Fear and Greed Index’ is now at neutral. This supports a notion that the size of the upcoming price moves in BTCUSD, up or down, are probably going to be neutral and not extreme. Thus, traders may want to take partial profits once the move of the trade goes in their favor. Still, this contrarian gauge is a delayed indicator, and future moves in crypto can always be surprising. As such, traders, at their discretion, may want to leave a part of the trade to run further, following their partial profit taking. On the stop loss side, traders should set that according to the BTCUSD price chart and their reward vs risk appetite and trade plan.
An interesting double resistance on the BTCUSD price chart
Some traders seeking to short, may want to wait to possibly catch a more attractive entry price at the double resistance in the price range of $25250 to $25500. This would be above the round numer of $25k, which has got some ‘magnet’ pull power for BTCUSD. The low of 12 May, an important pivot point in the price chart, is at $25338, and one of the two resistances shown in the image below:
BTCUSD price chart: Double resistance coming
- Addition to the bitcoin technical analysis on the hourly timeframe: An early sign of a failed breakout above the 25k key leve
BTCUSD hourly, early sign of a failed breakout above 25k
For traders taking the short, they may consider the Fibonacci levels of the range between the recent high $25054 and the low of the range, $18755 (the low of 18 June, 2022). Fibonacci retracement level is 78.6%, which is at BTCUSD of just under $23500. The idea is that the price may reverse there, even temporarily, if it gets there. Accordingly, traders can cover a part of their short position, for example, 25% of their position, at a profit. This allows them more comfort for the next duration of the trade.
Fibonacci level 78.6% for a possible partial profit
BTCUSD may be saying ‘Adios’ after crossing down this red line, retesting it, and then bulls seem to have given up. 4 hour candles.
Say Adios to BTC
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Tags: , BTC, BTCUSD, bitcoin , bitcoin price forecast, bitcoin trade idea