The AUDUSD moved up to test the 38.2% of the move down from the June 16 high as the London fix was approaching. However, the price stalled ahead of that level at 0.6878 (the high reached 0.6874) and the price has since moved back below the 200 hour MA at 0.68452.
Looking at the hourly chart above, there have been tries above the 200 hour MA as the price has declined since the June 16 swing high, but momentum has faltered on each of the breaks.
Today with the lower hurdle for the 200 hour MA (due to the downward sloping MA level), the price break above the MA was larger than others of late. However, the failure is still the same. The inability to extend above the 38.2% is just not what dip buyers and the buyers on the break of the 200 hour MA wanted to see.
So, the technical bias shifts more in the direction of the sellers once again on the failure(s). The next target is the 100 hour MA (blue line). Move below that level and the technical picture tilts even more in the direction of the sellers.
Helping the decline is stocks which are moving back into negative territory. That, and the US yields remaining elevated on the day are contributing to the move back lower.
Expectations are that it will be 75 basis points at the July 27 Fed meeting and CPI data next week should not help change that view either..