The USDJPY has seen up and down trading today with price action both above and below the 100/200 hour MAs in the process.
The pair moved lower in the Asian session reaching a low at 1.29788. After bottoming it moved back higher leading into the European session tested a swing area between 1.3049 and 1.30553, but found willing sellers against that area.
The subsequent move to the downside in the London morning session saw the price dip back below the near converged 100/200 hour moving averages. In the early North American session the price did extend above those moving averages briefly near 130.238, but could only get to 130.27 before rotating back to the downside.
The current prices trading at 130.03.
Staying below the 100/200 hour moving averages today will keep the sellers more control.
On the downside, a lower swing area between 1.2968 and 1.29787 along with the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 27 low at 129.657 are the downside targets to get to and through. Last week, the price did crack below those levels, and then the swing high going back to April 20 at 129.394. That sent the price tumbling lower to a low near 128.61 before the rebound back to the upside.
Yesterday the price moved to a new cycle high at 131.342. That took the pair above the April 28 high at 131.242. But disappointment on the break to new cycle highs (and 20 year highs) turned buyers into sellers and forcing the price back toward the comfort zone of the hourly moving averages.
The question today is “Can the price stay below the moving averages?”. If it can the downside is the path of least resistance. If not, the buyers would assume more control with the ups and downs continuing.