The
EURUSD rallied last week on the back of a tilt in the ECB toward the possibility of a tightening in 2022. That tilt was expressed last Thursday after the ECB rate decision (see spike higher on February 3).
The run to the upside stalled on Friday near swing highs from January 13 and January 14 near 1.1482 (the high on Friday reached 1.14832 ).
This week, the price chopped up and down with a downward tilt into the US CPI data.
Upon release of that data, the pair fell to a low of 1.1374, but then squeezed sharply higher. In the process, the pair took out the triple top near the 1.1483 area.
That was good news for the buyers. The bad news was that the rate could only get to 1.14943 before buyers turned to sellers once again.
Bullard’s comments sent the pair down even further and that continued in trading today with the price making a new low for the week at 1.13693.
At the low today, the pair has tested a swing area going back to the end of December between 1.1359 and 1.13684. Reaching that swing area, gave sellers a level to
take profit into the weekend. Dip buyers could also lean against the level with risk defined and limited (and stops on a break below).
The London and New York session has since seen the price move back up toward the broken 100 day moving average and 100 hour moving averages at 1.1413 and 1.14217 respectively. The high price in the New York session reached 1.14176 between those MA levels. Getting above would be a shift in the bias back to the upside going forward.
The last few hours has seen up and down price action trading around the 1.1400 level. The clock ticks toward the London/European close, and it makes you think that limping into the weekend with the price below the 100 hour/100 day MA, and above the aforementioned swing area as a neutral place to end the week.
Fundamentally, although the ECB shifted this week, so it seems did the markets perception of the Fed as well.
The other wild card is the Russia/Ukraine situation which would impact Europe more in a negative way. That news has taken a back seat as focus shifted toward monetary policy, but it could reenter the conversations going forward.
The US State Department said that after meeting with EU members, they are getting closer to options for sanction against Russia. They also warned that a move by Putin can happen at any time.