The USDCHF moved lower on Friday, and closed the day right near its 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.9189). The price in the early Asian session based near that moving average line and closing level and started to move higher. After a brief look above the 100 day moving average at 0.9212 and correcting lower, the pair took another run above the 100 day moving average in this time continued that trend like move higher.
The New York session has seen a sharp move toward a swing high going all the way back to November 26 between 0.9264 and 0.9274. The high price in the current hour just hit a new intraday high of 0.9267 – within that swing area. The 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November 23 high comes in at 0.9269. That is also in play.
Will the sellers leaned against this area?
Risk can be defined and limited, but the trend move is firmly intact for the day. It would likely take a move back below the 0.9249 to 0.9255 area to give sellers some comfort. Absent that and a move above the high of the swing area (and high channel trend line as well) would open the door for a run toward the swing high going back to December 15 at 0.9294