The consensus is that growth in 2022 will be vigorous. However, we should not be overly positive about 2022 growth in the United States and the eurozone, in the opinion of economists at Natixis.
Positive factors for growth in 2022
“The possibility that the significant savings that have been built up may be partially spent, especially as wealth effects are very positive.”
“The upturn in corporate profitability, which may favour an upturn in corporate investment.”
“The stabilisation or even slight fall in commodity prices.”
Important factors slowing growth in 2022
“Fiscal deficits will be far smaller than in 2021, despite the stimulus packages being implemented. The level of fiscal deficits in the United States and the euro zone will still be very high in 2022, but much lower than in 2021, which will reduce growth.”
“Real wages are falling in 2021 due to the surge in inflation on the back of the sharp rise in commodity prices, which, ceteris paribus, will dent households’ consumption capacity in 2022.”
“Companies’ hiring difficulties may curb the recovery in employment and therefore in production.”
“Monetary policies are likely to become more restrictive: no more expansion in the size of central banks’ balance sheets, increase in short-term interest rates. The prospect of this development could drive up risk premia, which would obviously be negative for growth.”