US: Payrolls probably slowed sharply after 943K surge in July

Previewing next week’s key macroeconomic data releases from the US, “payrolls probably slowed sharply after a 943k surge in July,” said TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

“The pattern reflects less help from the seasonal adjustment process, particularly for the government sector, but underlying momentum appears to have faded as well. That is the signal from the Homebase data, even as claims have been falling. Slowing would help the case for no tapering announcement in September.”

“We will review our forecasts after more regional surveys for August are released, but the surveys that have already been released point to some slowing in activity as the boosts from reopening and fiscal stimulus fade. The latest COVID wave is likely causing some slowing as well. That said, index levels have remained fairly high, consistent with a still-solid pace for growth.”