Results of the Tankan survey from Reuters
- Highest since Jan 2018
- Prior manufacturing was +25 (two-and-a-half year high)
- Non-manufacturing +5 vs -3 prior — highest since Feb 2020
The quarterly Tankan survey from the BOJ is a market mover but this survey rarely is. There were some comments about rising raw materials prices and the boom in semi-conductors.
“Conditions aren’t bad considering the coronavirus, but they aren’t at a level that should have been expected either,” a manager at a food manufacturer said.
I’m not surprised at the strength in the non-manufacturing survey given that the consumer was a source of strength in the Q2 GDP data. There’s a consistent pattern of consumers holding up better than expected in recent pandemic surges.
The Reuters Tankan index readings are calculated by subtracting the
percentage of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say
they are good. A positive reading means optimists outnumber
pessimists.
252 big and medium-sized firms responded to the survey, which was conducted Aug 4-16.