Price trended higher this week.
The price moved up around 180 pips from the low in the NY session on Tuesday, and above 138 pips after the pair moved back above the 100/200 hour MAs on Tuesday. The run to the upside moved outside a “red box” that has confined most of the pairs price action since March 23 on Wednesday 9 at 0.7663, and peaked near a swing area between 0.7755 and 0.7759 (the high reached 0.77606). That level as also a swing area going back to mid-March.
There has been a stall against that area and the price has traded up and down between the 61.8% at 0.77278 and that swing area above at 0.7759 today.
What next?
The best case for the buyers would be for the price to holds near the 61.8%, base and run above the higher ceiling. If there is more downside, I would expect dip buyers near 0.7700 IF the buying and break seen this week is a “real” change in bias for the pair.
On a move below 0.7700, and the waters turn a little more murky with a break below the 50% of the range since March 18, ruining the bullish party.
Hold support and rotate above the 0.7759 area, and a move toward 0.7800 would be the next key target next week. The high from March comes in at 07849 and that would be another target if the trend move has more legs.