- USD/TRY regains some traction following YTD lows.
- Turkey’s Industrial Production expanded 9.0% YoY.
- End-of-Year Inflation came in at 11.23% (from 11.15%).
The Turkish lira is giving away part of the earlier gains and now lifts USD/TRY to the 7.03 region.
USD/TRY gradually approaches 7.0000
After bottoming out in the vicinity of the key 7.0000 level on Thursday, USD/TRY regained some upside traction and is now hovering around the 7.03 zone, posting marginal gains for the day.
The recent weakness in the greenback accelerated the inflows into the EM FX space, benefiting the lira and its regional peers. The Turkish currency keeps deriving support as well from the tigh monetary policy stance from the central bank (CBRT), particularly since the shift to a more orthodox view in November.
It is worth noting that the lira posted gains in the last four consecutive months after reaching an all-time low vs. the US dollar near 8.60 back in early November. The pair is now navigating in levels close to the 7.0000 mark, last traded in early August 2020.
In the Turkish docket, the Industrial Production expanded 9.0% on a year to December boosted by the outperformance of the manufacturing sector (+9.5%). Additional data releases saw Retail Sales contracting at a monthly 4.2%, the Current Account deficit shrinking to $3.21 billion and the End Year CPI Forecast at 11.235 (from 11.15%).
USD/TRY key levels
At the moment the pair is gaining 0.09% at 7.0246 and faces the next hurdle at 7.1383 (weekly high Feb.9) followed by 7.3653 (200-day SMA) and finally 7.5415 (2021 high Jan.18). On the downside, a drop below 7.0071 (2021 low Feb.11) would expose 6.8796 (monthly low Aug.4 2020) and then 6.6834 (monthly low Jun.3 2020).