UK virus cases rise 1441 — highest since June 14

Rising daily tally in the UK

The UK is getting some attention today for requiring 14-day quarantines for visits to France. The takeaway is that people may spend more money at home.

However if cases continue to rise, they may be locked back down.

I believe there is a strong political risk in second waves. The public will forgive the first wave but will punish politicians if there is a second. Boris Johnson has a long lead time until the next election so it’s less of a factor in the UK, but my baseline is that officials will be overly quick to lockdown in second waves, because of political risk.

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